Séminaire externe des doctorants Edem EGNIKPO

Edem EGNIKPO

Doctorant à Aix-Marseille Université, Faculté d'Économie et de Gestion, Edem nous présentera un article intitulé " Informality and Heterogeneous Growth Effects of Natural Disasters"

Résumé :
There is consistent evidence that natural disasters generate greater and more persistent output losses in developing countries than
in advanced economies. This paper shows that a key driver of this asymmetry is the size of the informal sector, which is typically larger
in developing countries. Using a smooth-transition local projection method on a panel of 149 countries, I find that highly informal
economies experience deeper and longer-lived growth contractions following storm shocks, whereas less informal economies are more
resilient and recover faster. These results are robust to alternative specifications, different informality measures, and a broad set of
country characteristics. Ongoing work develops a two-sector DSGE framework to explore the mechanisms through which informality may
amplify disaster shocks.

Keywords: Natural Disasters, Informality, Growth, Local projection, DSGE Models